A Very New York September

There is something energizing about September in New York.

The city comes back to life.

Last weekend, I was in the Hamptons, just about two easy hours from the city. The light was extraordinary and the beaches were almost impossibly peaceful.

Back in the city, the week unfolded in a very New York way: I stumbled across Keith Haring in a small Tribeca gallery, attended a friend’s book launch at the inimitable Explorers Club, and ended up at a Harry Styles concert. Meanwhile, The Met broke ground on its ambitious new wing for modern and contemporary art.

And in real estate, another contradiction: mortgage rates remain near 7%, yet inventory is still unusually limited.

A very New York September.

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7% Rates, Very Little to Buy

I’m sure you’ve all heard by now that the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% this week. And if you haven’t, I’m jealous of the remote island you’re currently on.

It was the Fed’s first increase since July 2023. But mortgage rates have moved considerably during that period because they are influenced more directly by the bond market and expectations for inflation and growth than by any single Fed decision.

Fed officials also indicated that another quarter-point increase could come before the end of the year.

But here is the important part for real estate: the Fed’s move was not what suddenly pushed mortgage rates higher.

Mortgage rates had already been climbing for weeks as Treasury yields rose and investors reacted to renewed inflation concerns. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now around 7%.

That is painful, but it is worth putting in perspective. As the chart below shows, rates reached 8.01% in October 2023 and were above 7% again in the spring of 2025.

So what is driving this?

Since the war in Iran began in late February, energy prices have risen sharply. Higher oil and gasoline prices feed into the cost of transportation, manufacturing and ultimately the goods and services we buy.

That makes the Fed’s inflation problem harder.

The Fed has been clear that it wants inflation moving sustainably toward its 2% target. As long as inflation remains stubbornly elevated, the prospect of meaningfully lower interest rates becomes harder to see.

If the conflict de-escalates and oil prices retreat, some of that inflationary pressure could ease, potentially allowing rates to come down.

Here in New York City

And yet, something interesting is happening in New York real estate.

Despite mortgage rates hovering around 7%, 21.8% of homes sold across New York City in August traded above their asking price. In Manhattan, that figure was 16%.

The explanation is not that buyers have suddenly stopped caring about borrowing costs. They haven’t.

It is that limited inventory and the scarcity of truly compelling properties can still create competition, even in a difficult financing environment.

Which brings us to what may be the more important story for New York real estate right now: there still isn’t that much to buy.

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Manhattan Market Report

Every week I track supply, contracts, and momentum across Manhattan to better understand where the market is headed. Here’s this week’s data, through Sep 18.

Supply

After the usual August slowdown, inventory is beginning to build again. Manhattan had 7,255 homes on the market in August and 7,292 by September 18, as sellers began returning after Labor Day. We expect more inventory to come on over the next couple of weeks as the fall market gets fully underway.

Of the current listings, 395 Private Exclusives and are not broadly visible to the public.

If you would like access to these private listings, please reach out.

What Sellers Need to Know Now

A market with mortgage rates near 7% is not forgiving. Accurate pricing, careful preparation and the condition of the property matter more than ever.

Buyers are scrutinizing value, anticipated repairs and the total cost of ownership. Some may also seek concessions to offset higher financing costs.

For sellers, this makes the initial positioning especially important. A compelling asking price can produce a stronger result than aspirational overpricing. The homes generating the most interest are generally those that enter the market well prepared, well presented and priced to create urgency.

My three “P’s”:

• Preparation
• Presentation
• Pricing

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The Hamptons, After Summer

September is turning out to be my favorite time in the Hamptons.

I spent last weekend there with dear friends, and it was magnificent. The drive from Manhattan took just about two hours, the beaches were nearly empty, and the light had that unmistakable early-fall clarity. As a friend said, “The light is magical in September.” The sand was almost white, and the entire place felt transformed from the height of summer.

The Hamptons are only about a 2 to 3-hour drive from Manhattan, traffic permitting, yet they can feel worlds away. And while summer receives most of the attention, this is a particularly good time to be there. The crowds have thinned, the pace is calmer, and the landscape has lost none of its beauty.

In many ways, September may be the Hamptons at its best.

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A Very New York Week

One of the things I love most about New York is how often culture finds you when you are not looking for it.

Keith Haring gallery in Tribeca

Rushing between appointments in Tribeca this week, I happened upon a small gallery showing the work of Keith Haring. No grand plan, no museum ticket, just one of those wonderful New York surprises tucked into the middle of an ordinary day.

Then came something completely different: Harry Styles in concert. My daughter called and invited me to join her and her friends, and suddenly I found myself in Madison Square Garden, taking in the music, the performance and the extraordinary energy of the crowd. It could not have been further from the intimacy of that small Tribeca gallery.

A couple of days later, I was at the inimitable Explorers Club for a friend’s book launch, surrounded by the history, artifacts and stories of people who quite literally explored the world.

Meanwhile, on Fifth Avenue, The Met broke ground this week on its new wing for modern and contemporary art, designed by architect Frida Escobedo. The new Tang Wing will substantially expand and reimagine the museum’s modern and contemporary galleries.

That is what I love about New York. In the span of a few days, culture can arrive as a chance encounter on a downtown street, an evening inside one of the city’s most unusual institutions, at Madison Square Garden, or in the next chapter of one of the world’s great museums.

You never quite know what the city is going to put in front of you.